Election polling time is hot, and while Gov. Patrick Morrisey isn’t on the ballot this year, numbers in some key Senate districts reveal the governor is underwater in popularity.
Morrisey, a Republican, has been in office for roughly 21 months. The former West Virginia attorney general narrowly won a multi-person primary in 2024 with 33% of the vote.
Recent forecasts by State Navigate, a nonprofit focused on election forecasts in state races, showed Morrisey’s approval is at 45% and 31% in two different districts of the state.
“I would say that Morrissey is definitely underwater in West Virginia in approval,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate.
The organization recently polled voters in the Northern Panhandle’s Senate District 1 along with Senate District 8 in Kanawha County, which includes parts of Clay, Jackson, Putnam and Roane counties.
In Senate District 8, 61% of respondents said they disapprove of the job Morrisey is doing compared to 31% who say they approve.
In Senate District 1, Morrissey’s approval is an even 45-45.
“Pretty astonishing since he won this district by 33 points,” Nuttycombe said.
As we’re in the throes of campaign season, Nuttycombe pointed out that a Morrisey endorsement could have a negative impact on Republican candidates, especially those in tight statehouse races.
As part of the State Navigate poll, Nuttycombe surveyed what he called the “Morrisey effect.” In District 8, he believes a Morrisey endorsement “would be toxic” ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3.
“If Morrissey is being mentioned in this race a lot or anything, I think especially with the amount of undecideds and how much they hate the governor, that that could be something,” he said.
In District 8, 45% of respondents said they were less likely to vote for a candidate attached to Morrisey. The poll showed 40% of voters said Morrisey’s endorsement would have no effect on their vote.
In District 1, nearly half of voters said Morrisey’s endorsement wouldn’t affect their vote and 32% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the governor.
State Navigate polling in these districts also showed fewer than 50% of respondents approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing after he easily won West Virginia in the 2024 election.
A closer look at two state Senate races
State Navigate uses a seat by seat analysis in its polling process. They’ve already predicted the GOP supermajority will hold in both West Virginia’s Senate and House of Delegates.
At the end of September, State Navigate polled more than 800 voters in Senate District 1 and 8 through a text to online survey.
In District 1, incumbent and Morrisey-ally Sen. Laura Chapman, R-Ohio, faces a meaningful challenge from Democratic candidate Shawn Fluharty, who currently serves in the House of Delegates.
This could be one of November’s closet statehouse races and a potential Senate seat flip to blue.
Chapman leads Fluharty by 5 points in the polling in the majority Red area, but the samples show more motivated voters are behind Fluharty. Independents account for 20% of the district’s electorate, and if they show up to vote in the midterm election, this polling shows they’re leaning toward Fluharty.
Morrisey backed Chapman in May’s bitter Repubclian primary, and the governor has said it “will be one of the defining races in the [West Virginia] state Senate this year.” Morrisey was recently in the Northern Panhandle and publicly praised Chapman.
Chapman has held the Senate seat since 2022. She won the 2022 election with nearly 60% of the vote against Democratic challenger Randy Swartzmiller.
Fluharty’s anti-Morrisey stance is a hallmark of his campaign, billing his race as himself versus the governor since he expects Morrsiey to target him in the coming weeks. Fluharty easily won his 2024 House election despite Trump’s popularity in the area at the time; he is now pulling around 12% of voters who recall backing Trump for president.
“Fluharty is doing really well with Trump voters … He’s getting like 15% of Trump voters. It’s pretty good for a Democrat based in West Virginia,” Nuttycombe said.
Nearly half of the respondents in Senate District 1 said Morrisey’s endorsement wouldn’t affect their vote in the race; 32% of respondents said they’re less likely to vote for a candidate with Morrisey’s endorsement.
Senate District 8 will have a new elected official after incumbent Sen. Kevan Bartlett, R-Kanawha, lost his primary to Lance Wheeler.
Kim Hundley is the Democratic challenger in the race.
Wheeler leads 46% over 40% over Hundley with 14% undecided.
Independents lean Republican in this district, but have soured on Republican leadership. Hundley would need roughly 72% of undecided voters to overtake Wheeler, according to State Navigate.
A Morrisey endorsement could completely shift this race, according to Nuttycombe. The voters pushed away by Morrisey are exactly the ones Hundley needs to win. Among undecided voters alone, 26% say a Morrisey endorsement would make them much less likely to support a candidate.
The deadline to register to vote or update voter registration information is Oct 13. Early in-person voting runs Oct. 21-31.
Amelia Ferrell Knisely is a reporter for West Virginia Watch, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors. West Virginia Watch maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Leann Ray for questions: info@westvirginiawatch.com.
